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Will Lula be confirmed as a presidential pre-candidate in Brazil by May 1, 2026? Yes: real money 82%, play money 88% No: real money 18%, play money 12% Volume: real money 672.03743026, play money 65552.86014594 Bettors: real money 16, play money 51 Categories: Politics, Brazil, 2026 Election Related markets Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6536.79584312, play 940200.72299779 Bettors: real 100, play 1867 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 95% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 91% Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? (ID: 161038) Volume: real 161.94219097, play 150270.53470951 Bettors: real 20, play 267 Leading (real money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 13% Leading (play money): Brazil's Supreme Court expanded to more than 11 seats by the end of 2026? 4% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2000.85644531, play 254958.26429136 Bettors: real 42, play 548 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 20% Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1069.87900473, play 444831.44739855 Bettors: real 43, play 1218 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 29% Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? (ID: 156870) Volume: real 1159.7604085, play 215051.8512818 Bettors: real 27, play 405 Leading (real money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 6% Leading (play money): Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term? 4%

Will Lula be confirmed as a presidential pre-candidate in Brazil by May 1, 2026?

Market Rules

This market will resolve as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC-3) on May 1, 2026, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva is formally confirmed by any party as a pre-candidate for the Brazilian presidency in the 2026 elections.

A "pre-candidate" is defined as someone who:

  1. has publicly declared their intention to run for president, regardless of formal registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); and
  2. got his pre-candidature endorsed by a political party.

The announcement must come from a registered political party or an authorized representative. Media speculation or unofficial statements will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

Endorsements coming from other candidates or political activities that do not explicitly confirm Lula's condition as an official pre-candidate will not qualify. If no official confirmation is made by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No." In case of ambiguity or conflicting information, official sources or widely recognized media outlets will take precedence.

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