Will Ukraine hold a national referendum on conceding territory in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Ukraine will hold a nationally organized referendum at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive) that explicitly asks voters to approve or reject the concession of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements and results published by Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC).
If the CEC confirms that such a national referendum has taken place during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Local or regional referendums, unofficial votes, or plebiscites related only to ceasefire terms or administrative reform without ceding sovereignty will not count. If CEC information is unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive holding of a qualifying referendum, not procedural technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.