Russia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will continue to exercise de facto control over Crimea through December 31, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Russian or Ukrainian government statements and internationally recognized assessments regarding control of the territory.
If Russia maintains de facto control over Crimea through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Changes in international recognition without a change in on-the-ground control will not affect resolution. If official statements are disputed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations and reputable international monitoring bodies. Resolution will reflect substantive control of the territory, not legal recognition debates. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.