Will the US and Brazil close a rare earths deal in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether the United States and Brazil will officially conclude a bilateral or framework agreement on rare earths or other critical minerals at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be a joint official announcement by the U.S. and Brazilian governments confirming such an agreement.
If the United States and Brazil jointly announce the conclusion of a qualifying agreement on rare earths or critical minerals during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Memoranda of understanding or statements of intent that do not constitute a concluded agreement will not count. If official announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive conclusion of an agreement, not preliminary discussions. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.