Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...?

This event groups markets by the time period in which Iran formally agrees to end all uranium enrichment activities. The alternative whose end date contains the date of the agreement will be the winning outcome. "Agreement" is defined as Iran signing, ratifying, or formally accepting a binding international agreement (bilateral with the US or multilateral) that commits Iran to permanently cease all uranium enrichment. A non-binding statement of intent, a temporary pause, or a unilateral Iranian declaration without a corresponding signed agreement does not qualify.

Resolution will be based on official announcements by the governments of Iran and the United States, or by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or concordant reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion confirming that a binding agreement has been signed. The date of the agreement is the date it is signed or formally accepted, not the date enrichment physically stops.