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Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day? Yes: real money 17%, play money 19% No: real money 83%, play money 81% Volume: real money 223.81910002, play money 20725.54218003 Bettors: real money 4, play money 5 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1069.96250776, play 445025.99143697 Bettors: real 43, play 1221 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 29% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6536.89585151, play 942364.84930368 Bettors: real 101, play 1870 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 95% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 97% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2001.92761259, play 255081.82083213 Bettors: real 43, play 550 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 20%

Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day?

Market Rules

If President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially submits a new presidential nomination message (mensagem presidencial) to the Brazilian Federal Senate, naming a person other than Jorge Rodrigo Araújo Messias (whose nomination was rejected by the Senate plenary on April 29, 2026, by a vote of 42 to 34), to fill the vacancy left on the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF) by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's early retirement, at any time before 11:00:00 UTC on October 4, 2026 (08:00 BRT, the opening of polls in the first round of Brazil's 2026 general elections), this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only the formal submission of a presidential nomination message to the Senate counts; public statements, leaks, or informal indications of a name do not trigger a “Yes” resolution, and a re-nomination of Jorge Messias does not count for this market’s purposes. If multiple new nominees are submitted, the first one to be officially submitted resolves “Yes”. If President Lula leaves office before submitting a new nomination, this market resolves "No".

The Primary Designated Source is the official publication of the nomination message in the Federal Senate's records (senado.leg.br) and the Federal Official Gazette (Diário Oficial da União).

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