Markets
Leaderboard
Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day? Yes: real money 11%, play money 18% No: real money 89%, play money 82% Volume: real money 185.43013358, play money 967.72934802 Bettors: real money 4, play money 6 Categories: Politics, Brazil, Judiciary Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 965.16141894, play 506370.63856073 Bettors: real 43, play 1221 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 49% Lula to finish his presidential term? (ID: 166905) Volume: real 6764.14444757, play 1074068.13537676 Bettors: real 102, play 1879 Leading (real money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 96% Leading (play money): Lula to finish his presidential term? 95% Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? (ID: 161037) Volume: real 2005.73919587, play 284976.29312887 Bettors: real 44, play 552 Leading (real money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 25% Leading (play money): Impeachment of any of Brazil's Supreme Court Justices by the end of 2026? 9%

Will Lula nominate another person to STF before election day?

Market Rules

If President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially submits a new presidential nomination message (mensagem presidencial) to the Brazilian Federal Senate, naming a person other than Jorge Rodrigo Araújo Messias (whose nomination was rejected by the Senate plenary on April 29, 2026, by a vote of 42 to 34), to fill the vacancy left on the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal, STF) by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's early retirement, at any time before 11:00:00 UTC on October 4, 2026 (08:00 BRT, the opening of polls in the first round of Brazil's 2026 general elections), this market will resolve to "Yes".

Only the formal submission of a presidential nomination message to the Senate counts; public statements, leaks, or informal indications of a name do not trigger a “Yes” resolution, and a re-nomination of Jorge Messias does not count for this market’s purposes. If multiple new nominees are submitted, the first one to be officially submitted resolves “Yes”. If President Lula leaves office before submitting a new nomination, this market resolves "No".

The Primary Designated Source is the official publication of the nomination message in the Federal Senate's records (senado.leg.br) and the Federal Official Gazette (Diário Oficial da União).

Tags

People also viewed