Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether former Cuban president Raúl Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody before January 1º, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC. If, at any point before that deadline, U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raúl Castro, regardless of location or duration, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The Primary Designated Source is official information from the U.S. government (U.S. Department of Justice press releases, the FBI, the State Department, the White House) and a consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Castro's presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity do not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Castro submits to U.S. custody does qualify. Custody carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) does not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs before the deadline. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.