Winner of Israel's legislative election
Market Rules
This event predicts which political party or coalition will win the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the October 27, 2026 legislative election. Each market below corresponds to one listed party; exactly one will resolve "Yes".
The Primary Designated Source is the official results published by Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adat HaBehirot HaMerkazit), supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Tiebreaker rules: in the event of a tie for most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes; if that produces a further tie, the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order wins.
- If Likud, Together, or Yashar (or any successor party created through a merger) merges with or contests the election jointly with any other party, the Likud, Together, or Yashar market represents the resultant candidate list.
- Otherwise, if a listed party merges with one or more unlisted parties, the listed party's market represents the merged list; if two listed parties merge, the market of the party with more prior Knesset seats represents the merged list, with alphabetical order as final tiebreaker.
- If a listed party splits, its market represents the post-split party holding the most seats (alphabetical tiebreaker if needed).