Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
Market Rules
If a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet by December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "Yes". To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following:
- it must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline;
- it must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions,
- intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes);
- and it must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, activations on testnets or alternative networks, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, and layer-2 systems do not qualify on their own. "Activated" means the upgrade's rules are enforced on Bitcoin mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any required activation thresholds or lock-in periods.
The Primary Designated Source is the Bitcoin Core project's official releases and documentation (bitcoincore.org; github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin), supported by a consensus of credible reporting, honoring the spirit of the market.