Will Colombia declare a state of internal commotion in 2026?
Market Rules
If a decree declaring a state of internal commotion (estado de conmoción interior) under Article 213 of the Colombian Constitution is published in Colombia's Diario Oficial before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Colombia time (04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The market resolves to "Yes" upon publication of the decree in the Diario Oficial, whether the declaration covers the entire national territory or only part of it.
Only a declaration of internal commotion under Article 213 qualifies. Other states of exception or emergency measures — such as a state of foreign war (Article 212), a state of economic, social, or ecological emergency (Article 215), or natural-disaster declarations — do not count. Announcements of intent without a published decree do not count. Once the decree is published, resolution is final and irrevocable, even if the declaration is later struck down by the Constitutional Court or otherwise terminated.
The Primary Designated Sources are official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Colombia and the Diario Oficial published by the Imprenta Nacional de Colombia. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.