Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against an STF justice by the end of 2027?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market counts only acts between October 9, 2026, 11:43 UTC and December 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time (January 1, 2028, 02:59 UTC). It resolves "Yes" as soon as the Senate formally receives and reads in plenary an impeachment complaint against a sitting STF Justice, per the Senate's official record — whether or not the Justice is eventually removed.
FULL DETAILS
If, at any time between October 9, 2026, 11:43 UTC and December 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time (January 1, 2028, 02:59 UTC), the Federal Senate of Brazil formally opens an impeachment proceeding against a sitting Justice (ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) — meaning that a complaint (denúncia) for a crime of responsibility against that Justice is formally received by the President of the Senate and read in a plenary session for referral to a special committee, as provided in Law 1,079/1950 — this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Proceedings opened before October 9, 2026, 11:43 UTC are not taken into account, even if the condition was met at an earlier date. The Primary Designated Source is the official record of the Federal Senate (Diário do Senado Federal and the proceeding's page on senado.leg.br).
Requests that are merely filed (protocolados) with the Senate and left undecided, archived, rejected or not received by the President of the Senate do not count, nor do proceedings against former Justices or other authorities. Whether the Justice is ultimately removed is irrelevant. If the rules of the procedure change (by law or court decision), the market resolves "Yes" upon the first official act by which the Senate formally initiates the processing of an impeachment complaint against a sitting STF Justice under the rules then in force. Once the condition is first met, resolution is final and irrevocable, regardless of later suspension, archiving, acquittal or court decisions. Agência Senado and consistent reporting from at least two of Agência Brasil, Folha de S.Paulo, G1 and O Estado de S. Paulo may be used to confirm the outcome.