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SpaceX to launch humans to Mars by the end of 2024? No: real money 99%, play money 83% Yes: real money 1%, play money 17% Volume: real money 1274.59398869, play money 1459728.03 Bettors: real money 69, play money 3953 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 834.318723, play 72880.01331637 Bettors: real 19, play 85 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 11% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 8% SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? (ID: 202141) Volume: real 138.25693846, play 14240.0204 Bettors: real 6, play 24 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 6% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 21% SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? (ID: 201462) Volume: real 1126.67787528, play 173151.94839162 Bettors: real 28, play 138 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 17% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 47%

SpaceX to launch humans to Mars by the end of 2024?

Market Rules

Elon Musk's SpaceX has a very defined plan since its conception: taking humans to Mars. Musk assures that they will be able to fly a crewed mission to the red planet by 2024 with at least 3 preparatory uncrewed cargo missions planned to happen before that.

As of 2020, none of the planned Mars missions had started yet. One of the rockets that could potentially be used for a Mars mission would be used for a Moon mission first, which, according to Musk, might happen in 2021. It is unknown when any of the Mars missions will commence and if Musk will be able to fulfill its optimistic timeframe predictions.

If SpaceX does indeed launch a spaceship carrying humans to Mars anytime in 2024, this market will be resolved as "Yes". This market does not depend on when (or if) the ship will reach the destination successfully, nor on whether or not the crew survives the trip. For a "Yes" resolution, it is enough that the launch takes place, the ship leaves the atmosphere, and starts its journey through space towards the red planet while the crew is still alive.

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  • mayrokrattsupreme: we know that it takes time for the cabal to setup all of its hologram projectors to fake the shape of the earth and preparing all astronauts could take a long time due to the heavy amount of hypnosis and brainwashing, they won't be ready to launch in 2024, assuredly I bet my Ooms that the cabal won't launch until 2026-2030.
  • lucaslocher7: Spackneo1#124795 Promising future goals of SpaceX: Traveling to Mars, returning humans to the Lunar mission, making humans an interplanetary species...
  • Spackneo1: What is the future of this SpaceX???

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