Markets
Leaderboard
SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? Yes: real money 17%, play money 47% No: real money 83%, play money 53% Volume: real money 1126.67787528, play money 173151.94839162 Bettors: real money 28, play money 138 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? (ID: 202141) Volume: real 138.25693846, play 14240.0204 Bettors: real 6, play 24 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 6% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? 21% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 834.318723, play 72880.01331637 Bettors: real 19, play 85 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 11% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 8% Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? (ID: 212455) Volume: real 555.04886017, play 16610.0032 Bettors: real 11, play 18 Leading (real money): Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? 10% Leading (play money): Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026? 14%

SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft without a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the Starship is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2026 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

Tags

Related Markets