Will China try to take Taiwan by the end of 2023?
Market Rules
Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) have risen since 2016.
Chinese military officials have declared a desire to take Taiwan by the Chinese Communist Party's 100th anniversary. Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping's stance on the matter has been to define Taiwan's independence as a "dead end", reaffirming the importance of the reunification without ruling out the rule of force targeted at foreign intervention and separatism activists.
The Taiwanese government, on the other hand, has increasingly rejected the "One China" policy towards it, following the understanding that it would deny the country its status as an independent nation. In line with Taiwan, international pressures, most notably from the US, have further questioned the People's Republic of China's aspirations over the Taiwanese territory.
If by December 31st, 2023, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory. The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.