End of US military operation in Iran by ...?

US military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, with Operation Epic Fury. This set of markets predicts the date by which the United States ends active military operations in Iran. If such operations end before the date listed in a market, that market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".

For these markets, the “end of military operations” requires both:

• (i) an official announcement by the United States government (including the Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or the White House) that active combat operations have concluded by the announcement date; and
• (ii) a sustained cessation of offensive military activity in Iran for a continuous period of at least 7 consecutive days following that announcement.

A ceasefire, truce, or agreement alone does not qualify unless it is accompanied by the sustained cessation of active military operations as defined above. The continued presence of US forces in or near Iranian territory does not prevent resolution, provided that those forces are not engaged in active combat operations.

Temporary pauses, humanitarian corridors, or short-term cessations of hostilities lasting fewer than 7 consecutive days do not qualify. If combat operations resume within 7 days after an announcement, the announcement will not qualify as the end of operations.

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official US government statements confirming the end of operations. The Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and overwhelming consensus of major reputable international news organizations reporting both the announcement and the sustained cessation of combat activity. Resolution will be based on the substantive operational reality, not solely on political statements. If a fair determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.