Markets
Leaderboard
When will GPT-4 be launched? Before April 1st: real money 82%, play money 55% Not before 2024: real money 7%, play money 3% Between April 1st and June 30th: real money 6%, play money 34% Between July 1st and September 30th: real money 3%, play money 5% Between October 1st and December 31st: real money 2%, play money 3% Volume: real money 235.90294904, play money 7640 Bettors: real money 2, play money 2 Categories: Science, Artificial Intelligence Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 8364.30375331, play 121485.49947859 Bettors: real 73, play 76 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? (ID: 231566) Volume: real 82.85871069, play 16689.2106413 Bettors: real 8, play 15 Leading (real money): Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? 8% Leading (play money): Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? 6% Which companies will be acquired before 2027? (ID: 239821) Volume: real 1507.65354198, play 121606.47057231 Bettors: real 23, play 29 Leading (real money): PayPal 20% Leading (play money): PayPal 25% Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026? (ID: 239702) Volume: real 547.48928273, play 105486.48047623 Bettors: real 26, play 26 Leading (real money): Anthropic 48% Leading (play money): Anthropic 54% What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027? (ID: 239437) Volume: real 229.68548676, play 41867.54528144 Bettors: real 14, play 13 Leading (real money): Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72% Leading (play money): Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%

When will GPT-4 be launched?

Market Rules

The public release of the text-generating model ChatGPT hints at an exponential change in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in internet searches, education and intellectual creation, strengthening the competition among Big Tech companies. The unparalleled size of the database used to train this AI, GPT-3, and efficiency will most likely increase in its updated version, GPT-4.

This market will be resolved in favor of the alternative whose range of dates includes the date announced for the public release of GPT-4. The announcement of this new technology must come through an official channel or spokesperson for either Microsoft or OpenAI. The referred date should mark the public access to the technology, broadly or in a restricted manner.

Tags

People also viewed