Markets
Leaderboard
What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027? Less than 85.1%: real money 7%, play money 7% Between 85.1% and 89.0% (inclusive): real money 13%, play money 13% Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive): real money 45%, play money 45% Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive): real money 25%, play money 25% 96.1% or higher: real money 10%, play money 10% Volume: real money 100.3705389, play money 10000.4 Bettors: real money 8, play money 8 Categories: Finance, Artificial Intelligence Related markets Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? (ID: 231720) Volume: real 3239.18814725, play 250966.25260459 Bettors: real 50, play 68 Leading (real money): Anthropic 86% Leading (play money): Anthropic 76% China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1585.53526888, play 232657.621554 Bettors: real 35, play 503 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9%

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Market Rules

This event predicts the highest verified score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (private evaluation set) by any AI system, as reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard, at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC. Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive percentage range of the maximum score; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the ARC Prize official leaderboard (arcprize.org/leaderboard), specifically the highest verified ARC-AGI-2 private-set score listed on the leaderboard as of January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC. Only scores that ARC Prize publicly verifies (i.e., submitted, evaluated, and listed on the leaderboard) count. Self-reported, unverified, or test-set results that have not been validated by the ARC Prize do not count. If the leaderboard methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to determine the value. Otherwise, this question will be annulled.

Tags

Related Markets