IAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
Throughout human history, there have been several accidents involving contamination with radioactive material, such as the Chernobyl accident, which was the biggest nuclear disaster in history (1986); the Fukushima accident, which was the most recent (2011); and the Cesium 137 accident in Goiânia (Brazil), which happened outside a nuclear energy installation due to the abandonment of radiotherapy devices (1987).
All these accidents were tragedies that took many lives - even after several years from their occurrence -, and their occurrence led to higher safety standards in an attempt to lower the odds of something similar happening again.
If between January 1st, 2025, and December 31st, 2026, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officially declares it identified the occurrence of a new accident that leads to contamination with radioactive material - be it in nuclear installations or not - this market will be resolved as "Yes". The IAEA normally reports accidents of that type on their page at https://www.iaea.org/topics/accident-reports