Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, development means the successful creation of a functional nuclear weapon, as confirmed by authoritative sources. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or the United Nations Security Council.
If authoritative confirmation is issued that Iran has developed a functional nuclear weapon during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speculation, intelligence leaks, or unverified claims will not count. If official confirmation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing authoritative sources. Resolution will reflect the substantive development of a nuclear weapon, not allegations. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.