Will any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council —China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, or the United States — will officially withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 (UTC-3). For the market to resolve as "Yes," a qualifying state must formally notify the UN or relevant treaty bodies of its withdrawal from the NPT in accordance with Article X of the treaty, or publicly confirm such withdrawal through an official government declaration.
Verification will rely on official statements from the government of the withdrawing state, the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Reports from reputable media outlets referencing such official statements may be used for confirmation. Mere speculation, threats to withdraw, or discussions about suspension or reinterpretation of treaty obligations will not be sufficient to resolve the market as "Yes" unless a formal withdrawal is confirmed.
If no permanent member of the UN Security Council formally withdraws from the NPT by the deadline, the market will resolve as "No." In the event of conflicting information or ambiguous declarations, priority will be given to official communications from the withdrawing state's government or treaty-monitoring bodies recognized under the NPT framework.