Will the US Supreme Court uphold the use of Louisiana’s S.B. 8 voting map in its current term?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether the U.S. Supreme Court will, during its 2024–2025 term, issue a ruling in the case of Louisiana v. Callais (docket no. 24-109) that permits the continued use of the redistricting map enacted through Louisiana’s S.B. 8, which adds a second majority-Black congressional district.
The market will resolve as “Yes” if the Court issues a decision that allows the S.B. 8 map to be used in future elections — whether by affirming its constitutionality, reversing the district court’s injunction, or otherwise rejecting the challenge to the map. The market will resolve as “No” if the Court finds the map unconstitutional, invalid under federal law, procedurally impermissible, or declines to decide the case within the 2024–2025 term.
The primary resolution source will be the Supreme Court’s published opinion in Louisiana v. Callais. In the event of ambiguity or fragmented opinions, the market will resolve based on whether a majority outcome permits or blocks the use of the S.B. 8 map.