Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2025?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether the United States will enter a technical recession during calendar‑year 2025—that is, at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
A “Yes” resolution requires any back‑to‑back pair of quarters with negative growth in which both quarters fall within 2025. Negative growth means a value strictly below 0.0 percent in Table 1.1.1 of the corresponding BEA advance release, so that zero or positive growth in any quarter breaks a potential sequence.
The primary settlement source is the BEA’s quarterly advance GDP result. If the release is temporarily inaccessible, the fallback is the identical advance figure carried in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)’s Real GDP series. If no qualifying two‑quarter sequence is present in any advance estimate covering Q1 2025 through Q4 2025, the market resolves “No.” Later BEA revisions, NBER recession declarations, or monthly indicators do not affect resolution.