Which will be the winning party of the presidential election in Chile?
Market Rules
This market predicts which political party or formally registered electoral coalition will secure the presidency of Chile in the 2025 election cycle, in which the first round of voting is set for November 16, 2025. If no candidate obtains more than 50 percent of valid votes, a runoff will take place on December 14, 2025, and the winner of that runoff will determine this market's outcome.
The winning party is defined as the party (or coalition label) of the candidate who is proclaimed president-elect by Chile’s Tribunal Calificador de Elecciones (Tricel). If a runoff is held, the market remains open until that proclamation, and if a candidate wins outright in the first round, it resolves when the first-round tallies are certified or mathematically defined. In case of an electoral calendar change, the market’s closing date will adjust to match the statutory schedule, and the outcome will still be determined by Tricel’s final proclamation.
The market’s resolution will be verified primarily based on the official results and proclamations issued by Servicio Electoral de Chile (SERVEL) and Tricel. However, reporting by reputable news outlets that explicitly cite the certified outcome may also be used for resolution. Subsequent legal challenges or recounts do not affect the market once Tricel’s proclamation is published. Only that initial, official declaration determines the winning party for resolution.