Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether, while Donald J. Trump holds the office of President of the United States (ending when he leaves office on the scheduled date of January 20, 2029, or earlier), he will issue an executive grant of clemency that either pardons Ghislaine Maxwell or commutes her federal sentence.
The market resolves to “Yes” the moment such clemency is made public through an official White House or Department of Justice announcement, a signed warrant released by the Office of the Pardon Attorney, or a notice in the Federal Register. Any conditional pardon or partial commutation also qualifies for this market’s purposes. If Trump leaves office without granting clemency to Maxwell, the market resolves “No”.
Reputable news outlets that explicitly quote or reproduce the official clemency document may also serve as confirmation. Subsequent litigation, revocation, or state-level actions do not affect this market’s resolution.