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Will Donald Trump’s job approval rate drop below 40% in 2026? Yes: real money 73%, play money 81% No: real money 27%, play money 19% Volume: real money 521.04679457, play money 41926.061 Bettors: real money 9, play money 17 Categories: Politics, USA, White House, Approval Rates Related markets Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 2962.18003222, play 136707.61608244 Bettors: real 26, play 206 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 50% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2422.49475017, play 113871.83467419 Bettors: real 34, play 205 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 50% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 71%

Will Donald Trump’s job approval rate drop below 40% in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s job approval rate will fall below 40.0% at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Poll Average for presidential job approval published on its official website during the market period.

If the RCP Poll Average shows Donald Trump’s job approval rate at any time below 40.0% during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the RCP data is unavailable or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on archived RCP data or consistent reporting from major news organizations citing the RCP average. Resolution will reflect the substantive approval percentage shown, not formatting or rounding technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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