US to announce withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether the United States will formally announce its withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a qualifying announcement means a formal notification consistent with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official communications from the U.S. government, including statements by the President or formal diplomatic notifications.
If the United States formally announces its withdrawal from NATO during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The mandatory one-year notice period does not need to conclude within the market period for a "Yes" resolution; only the formal announcement is required. If official announcements are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive announcement of withdrawal, not whether the withdrawal has become effective. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.