Will the US control Greenland in 2026?

This event predicts whether the United States will exercise sovereign control over the majority (at least 50%) of Greenland's territory at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, “control” means formal transfer of sovereignty or governance authority over Greenland to the United States. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official treaties, legislation, or executive actions by the U.S. and Danish/Greenlandic authorities confirming such a transfer.

If Greenland is formally placed under U.S. sovereign control during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Military presence, basing agreements, or economic influence without sovereignty transfer will not count. If official documentation is unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive transfer of sovereignty, not temporary or indirect influence. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.