Scotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Scotland will formally become an independent state separate from the United Kingdom at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official UK and Scottish government acts or international recognition confirming independence.
If Scotland formally becomes an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Referendums, negotiations, or legislative steps that do not result in formal independence taking effect will not count. If official documentation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive attainment of independence, not preliminary political processes. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.