John Swinney still First Minister of Scotland through the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether John Swinney will remain in office as First Minister of Scotland through December 31, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Scottish Government announcements confirming the First Minister.

If John Swinney officially remains First Minister through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If he resigns, is removed, or is replaced before that date, the market will resolve to "No" at the moment of the official announcement. Temporary leaves of absence will not affect resolution as long as he officially retains the position. If official records are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major UK or international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive officeholding, not interim arrangements. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.