Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether Russian armed forces will carry out kinetic military action within the territory of a NATO member state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the attacked state, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.
If Russia conducts kinetic military action inside the territory of a NATO member during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, or mere troop deployments will not count. If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive kinetic attack, not escalation rhetoric. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.