Will Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will control Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of December 31, 2026. For this market, control means effective military or legally recognized control preventing Ukraine from accessing these seas. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Ukrainian government statements or widely recognized international reporting confirming such control.
If Russia effectively controls Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If Russia controls only part of Ukraine’s sea access, Futuur may use its discretion to determine whether this constitutes effective control. If Russia and Ukraine consensually recognize by treaty that the relevant territory belongs to Russia, this will also resolve to "Yes". If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive control or recognition, not temporary blockades. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.