US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 3.5% or more: real money 5%, play money 7% 3.25%-3.49%: real money 18%, play money 13% 3.00%-3.24%: real money 26%, play money 24% 2.75%-2.99%: real money 13%, play money 18% 2.50%-2.74%: real money 12%, play money 17% 2.25%-2.49%: real money 6%, play money 8% Less than 2.25%: real money 8%, play money 12% Volume: real money 242.80817131, play money 15685.71538571 Bettors: real money 5, play money 4 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Interest Rates Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 1935.24408401, play 35762.14306169 Bettors: real 18, play 81 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 50% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 42% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 640.92898739, play 68989.89904398 Bettors: real 30, play 77 Leading (real money): Kash Patel 66% Leading (play money): Kash Patel 70% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 736.33367686, play 31583.12480585 Bettors: real 10, play 45 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 50% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 19% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2422.49475017, play 113871.83467419 Bettors: real 34, play 205 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 50% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 71% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 2962.18003222, play 136707.61608244 Bettors: real 26, play 206 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 50% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57%

US basic interest rate at the end of 2026

Market Rules

This event predicts the target federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the United States at the end of 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the Federal Reserve, using official FOMC statements and releases published on federalreserve.gov. Because the Federal Reserve typically sets a target range rather than a single rate, resolution will be based on the lower bound of the target range in effect at the end of December 31, 2026.

If the FOMC holds emergency or unscheduled meetings after its last regular meeting of the year, the markets will resolve based on the final target range in effect as of December 31, 2026, even if announced after the trading deadline. If the Federal Reserve changes how it sets or communicates the policy rate, Futuur will use the most comparable official figure to determine resolution. The markets will resolve according to the substantive policy outcome and market intent, not minor wording or formatting differences. Subsequent clarifications or revisions will not affect the resolution; if no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.

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