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Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? Kash Patel: real money 66%, play money 70% Kristi Noem: real money 54%, play money 21% Tulsi Gabbard: real money 52%, play money 52% Howard Lutnick: real money 46%, play money 52% Pete Hegseth: real money 33%, play money 27% RFK Jr.: real money 26%, play money 26% Peter Navarro: real money 22%, play money 25% Brendan Carr: real money 21%, play money 35% Marco Rubio: real money 14%, play money 15% Pam Bondi: real money 45%, play money 28% Volume: real money 640.92898739, play money 68989.89904398 Bettors: real money 30, play money 77 Categories: Politics, USA, White House, Staff and Cabinet Related markets Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 2962.18003222, play 136707.61608244 Bettors: real 26, play 206 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 50% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2422.49475017, play 113871.83467419 Bettors: real 34, play 205 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 50% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 71%

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts which of the listed individuals will cease to hold their office within the Trump administration at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. An individual is considered to have left the administration if they resign, are dismissed, are reassigned outside the administration, or otherwise no longer occupy an official government position within it. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement from the White House or the relevant U.S. government department confirming the individual’s departure.

If official confirmation is delayed, incomplete, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will consist of corroboration from multiple major, reputable U.S. news organizations reporting the individual’s confirmed departure based on official statements. Resolution will prioritize the substantive outcome over minor technicalities in timing or wording, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.

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Comments

  • peakist: @futuur Why not solve the Kristi Noem market ? She's been gone for a month now, as per wikipedia : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristi_Noem
  • pedro_brito: Hi @peakist! I think the market hasn't closed yet because Kristi Noem was reassigned to a new role as Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas — she remains in the Trump administration, just not as DHS Secretary.
  • peakist: That helps, thanks @pedro_brito . This is yet another example of the world events being not black and white but in shades of grey I guess (though there are many exceptions)
  • peakist: @futuur Saw this on TG : " Trump has officially fired “Border Patrol Barbie” Kristi Noem and replaced her with Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin,"
  • aimar321: Karoline Leavitt ?

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