Will Iran lose control of Kharg Island by the end of June?
Market Rules
If Iran loses effective control of Kharg Island on or before June 30, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "Yes". "Losing effective control" means that a foreign military force has established and is maintaining a sustained physical presence on the island such that Iran can no longer operate its oil export infrastructure or maintain a military garrison there.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying loss of control requires that foreign forces are physically present on Kharg Island and exercising control for a continuous period of at least 48 hours, or that Iran is demonstrably unable to re-establish a military or administrative presence on the island during that period.
Short-duration incursions, raids, bombardments, sabotage operations, or blockades that do not result in sustained physical control of the island do not qualify. Temporary disruptions to infrastructure, even if severe, do not qualify unless they are accompanied by the loss of Iranian control as defined above.
Resolution will be based on official statements by the US Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or the Iranian government, or concordant reporting by reliable news outlets cohen at Futuur’s criterion confirming that foreign forces have established sustained control over the island. Resolution will follow the substantive condition of control, not short-lived or reversible military actions.