Will Iran attack ... in May?
Market Rules
This event tracks possible Iranian military strikes against the sovereign territory of other countries during May 2026. Each market under this event corresponds to one specific target country and resolves to "Yes" if Iran conducts a qualifying military strike against that country's territory at any time between this market's creation and 23:59:59 UTC on May 31, 2026.
For the purposes of these markets, an "Iranian military strike" means a kinetic military action — missile strike, drone strike, airstrike, naval bombardment, or ground operation — carried out by the Iranian Armed Forces (regular military), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or the Quds Force, and attributed to the Iranian state by official statements (from Iran or from the target country) or by overwhelming consensus of credible international reporting. Missile or drone launches from Iranian territory are a clear example of qualifying action.
Attacks carried out by non-state actors or by proxy forces (e.g., Houthi forces, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) do not count, even when those forces receive Iranian backing. Cyberattacks, rhetorical threats, sanctions, naval interdictions in international waters, attacks not on the target's sovereign territory, and strikes on the target country's diplomatic premises located on third-country soil do not count. Only strikes on the sovereign land territory, territorial waters, or national airspace of the target country itself count.
Primary Designated Sources: official Iranian statements (state media, such as IRNA, Tasnim, Press TV), the target country's official government statements, and confirmation by major international news agencies and outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion.