Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War will be agreed and take effect during calendar year 2026. If, in this period, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) publicly agree to and put into effect a formal ceasefire covering the entire territory of Sudan that is intended to hold for at least 30 consecutive days from its effective date, even if it is immediately violated, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The Primary Designated Source is the United Nations (un.org), the African Union (au.int), and official statements from the SAF and RSF, supplemented by reporting from Reuters, AP, BBC, and Al Jazeera.
Brief humanitarian truces lasting less than 30 days do not count as ceasefires. Local or regional ceasefires that do not cover the full territory do not count. If a third belligerent emerges and is not party to the ceasefire (e.g., a splinter faction), the ceasefire still counts if it covers SAF and RSF. Minor ceasefire violations that both parties agree do not end the truce will not affect this market’s resolution. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.