astral-codex-ten predictions, powered by the crowd | Futuur

Astral Codex Ten

25

Change in the composition of the Supreme Court of the United States in 2026?

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?

How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

3 or less43%
4 to 629%
7 to 913%
10 to 129%
13 to 155%

What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?

Below $ 60,0006%
Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.9928%
Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.9947%
Between $ 90,000 and $ 104,999.9912%
$ 105,000 or higher6%

Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

Below -20 percentage points13%
Between -20 and -15.1 percentage points50%
Between -15 and -10.1 percentage points22%
Between -10 and -5.1 percentage points9%
-5 percentage points or higher5%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

1.52 °C or higher23%
Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive)17%
Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive)38%
Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive)15%
Below 1.39 °C6%

How many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?

14 or fewer5%
Between 15 and 17 (inclusive)7%
Between 18 and 22 (inclusive)34%
Between 23 and 27 (inclusive)38%
28 or more15%

What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Less than 80%10%
Between 80.0% and 89.9% (inclusive)32%
Between 90.0% and 99.9% (inclusive)53%
100% or higher5%

Will Israel normalize relations with _____ in 2026?

Saudi Arabia11%
Qatar9%
Oman6%

Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Binyamin Netanyahu still Prime Minister of Israel through the end of 2026?

Will GTA VI be released during 2026?

Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive)72%
96.1% or higher28%
Less than 85.1%5%
Between 85.1% and 89.0% (inclusive)6%
Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive)49%

Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?

Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?

Will China blockade Taiwan during 2026?

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?