How many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by July 31? At least 30: real money 30%, play money 30% At least 40: real money 15%, play money 15% At least 50: real money 7%, play money 7% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Politics, Middle East, Iran Related markets Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1321.77542195, play 137521.52611427 Bettors: real 83, play 106 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116466.23915531 Bettors: real 39, play 212 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3246.73501219, play 134134.83831538 Bettors: real 30, play 210 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 2% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 55%

How many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by July 31?

Market Rules

This set of markets concerns daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz: whether the number of ships transiting on a single day reaches any of the given thresholds during the market period. Resolution uses the daily transit-call count ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz published by IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org); a market resolves to "Yes" if any finalized daily count reaches its threshold on any date on or before July 31, 2026 (23:59 UTC), and "No" otherwise.

A day's figure is final once the next day's data is published; if the final period is not finalized within a reasonable window afterward, resolution uses the best available published figures, following the counts IMF PortWatch actually reports rather than superficial changes in how they are presented. Because the thresholds are cumulative, a higher daily count also satisfies every lower threshold.

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