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US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — August 2026 3.0% or less: real money 17%, play money — Exactly 3.1%: real money 24%, play money — Exactly 3.2%: real money 26%, play money — Exactly 3.3%: real money 14%, play money — Exactly 3.4%: real money 13%, play money — Exactly 3.5%: real money 5%, play money — 3.6% or more: real money 1%, play money — Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Inflation Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4228.22305726 Bettors: real 8, play 15 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026 (ID: 231719) Volume: real 449.22807135, play 9115.30084306 Bettors: real 39, play 15 Leading (real money): 2.0% to 2.2% 33% Leading (play money): 2.0% to 2.2% 39% US annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026? (ID: 231758) Volume: real 35.39676923, play 50.49806122 Bettors: real 26, play 12 Leading (real money): Between 2.5% and 2,9% 41% Leading (play money): Between 2.5% and 2,9% 42% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 277.71158375, play 4616.10932043 Bettors: real 14, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 33% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 45% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1629.54428251, play 36459.76555613 Bettors: real 24, play 119 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 50% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — August 2026

Market Rules

Markets in this event resolve according to the percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026, as reported to one decimal place in the Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays release for August 2026, scheduled for September 30, 2026. The market whose bracket contains the reported figure will resolve "Yes"; exactly one outcome wins.

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