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US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — October 2.8% or less: real money 1%, play money 1% 2.90%: real money 7%, play money 7% 3.00%: real money 15%, play money 15% 3.10%: real money 24%, play money 24% 3.20%: real money 33%, play money 33% 3.30%: real money 19%, play money 19% 3.4% or more: real money 1%, play money 1% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Inflation Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 7066.67182095, play 91558.6285535 Bettors: real 31, play 109 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 31% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 34% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1738.34755226, play 150290.29645622 Bettors: real 90, play 107 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2770.42679439, play 122128.47381409 Bettors: real 39, play 217 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 81% Next Justice to leave the US Supreme Court (ID: 149805) Volume: real 107.38121299, play 3013.37809888 Bettors: real 40, play 46 Leading (real money): Clarence Thomas 26% Leading (play money): Clarence Thomas 54% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3263.35588707, play 141607.58092109 Bettors: real 32, play 215 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 65% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46%

US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — October

Market Rules

This event covers only the October 2026 figure in the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release scheduled for November 25, 2026. Markets resolve according to the seasonally adjusted 12-month percentage change in core PCE (the PCE price index excluding food and energy) for the period ending October 2026, as published to one decimal place. The market whose range contains the reported figure will resolve to "Yes"; exactly one outcome wins.

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