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US GDP growth in Q4 2026 Less than 1.0%: real money 6%, play money 6% Between 1.0% and 1.5%: real money 5%, play money 5% Between 1.5% and 2.0%: real money 13%, play money 13% Between 2.0% and 2.5%: real money 17%, play money 17% Between 2.5% and 3.0%: real money 10%, play money 10% Between 3.0% and 3.5%: real money 17%, play money 17% 3.5% or more: real money 32%, play money 32% Volume: real money 0, play money 0 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, GDP Related markets Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222364) Volume: real 82.61041415, play 4414.35042375 Bettors: real 8, play 16 Leading (real money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 21% Leading (play money): Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 20% Brazil's GDP annual growth rate in 2026 (ID: 235040) Volume: real 197.33207291, play 13802.22734883 Bettors: real 22, play 14 Leading (real money): Between 1.6% and 2.0% 55% Leading (play money): Between 1.6% and 2.0% 45% Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026 (ID: 235044) Volume: real 621.83811023, play 48356.34039514 Bettors: real 36, play 18 Leading (real money): Between 82.1% and 87.0% 75% Leading (play money): Between 82.1% and 87.0% 38% Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222363) Volume: real 301.64767308, play 8707.76416891 Bettors: real 15, play 19 Leading (real money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 30% Leading (play money): Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 35% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1759.43507105, play 37150.61303342 Bettors: real 24, play 120 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 31% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 74%

US GDP growth in Q4 2026

Market Rules

This event covers only the Q4 2026 "Advance Estimate" published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, scheduled for release on January 28, 2027. Markets resolve according to the seasonally adjusted, annualized growth rate of US real GDP in that release. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range wins. Exactly one outcome will resolve "Yes".

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