Will any vaccine be considered at least 50% effective against the South African variant of SARS-COV-2 by the end of September 2021?
Market Rules
SARS-COV2 is proving itself to be a virus with a great capacity for mutation, which facilitates the emergence of new variants that might potentially harm the effect of vaccination. In March 2021 a study was published comparing the effectiveness of the Oxford/Aztrazeneca vaccine against the new strain of SARS-COV-2 that was prevalent in South Africa, the so-called B.1.351. The study concluded that the immunizer is only 10% effective against this new variant, in comparison to previous studies that indicated it was up to 70% effective against the original coronavirus strain.
More studies on the effectiveness of other vaccines against SARS-COV-2 are still in progress. If by September 30, 2021, clinical studies show that any vaccine is at least 50% effective specifically against the South African variant of SARS-VOC-2 (B.1.351) this MARKET will be resolved as "Yes".
Only the studies that are considered credible and reputable by the scientific community - and have been published by September 30, 2021 - will be taken into account for resolving this market.