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When will GPT-4 be launched? Before April 1st: real money 82%, play money 55% Not before 2024: real money 7%, play money 3% Between April 1st and June 30th: real money 6%, play money 34% Between July 1st and September 30th: real money 3%, play money 5% Between October 1st and December 31st: real money 2%, play money 3% Volume: real money 235.90294904, play money 7640 Bettors: real money 2, play money 2 Categories: Science, Artificial Intelligence Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 4962.75470581, play 106815.03935947 Bettors: real 68, play 66 Leading (real money): Anthropic 94% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? (ID: 231566) Volume: real 76.36171488, play 9328.68812525 Bettors: real 8, play 14 Leading (real money): Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? 9% Leading (play money): Will OpenAI be acquired in 2026? 10% What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027? (ID: 239437) Volume: real 137.55600655, play 41867.54528144 Bettors: real 14, play 13 Leading (real money): Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive) 49% Leading (play money): Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive) 55% Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026? (ID: 239702) Volume: real 286.22021898, play 88675.64076532 Bettors: real 23, play 24 Leading (real money): Anthropic 67% Leading (play money): Anthropic 65% GPT-6 released by ...? (ID: 239899) Volume: real 1420.46212201, play 144978.78954186 Bettors: real 19, play 19 Leading (real money): December 31, 2026 78% Leading (play money): December 31, 2026 93%

When will GPT-4 be launched?

Market Rules

The public release of the text-generating model ChatGPT hints at an exponential change in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in internet searches, education and intellectual creation, strengthening the competition among Big Tech companies. The unparalleled size of the database used to train this AI, GPT-3, and efficiency will most likely increase in its updated version, GPT-4.

This market will be resolved in favor of the alternative whose range of dates includes the date announced for the public release of GPT-4. The announcement of this new technology must come through an official channel or spokesperson for either Microsoft or OpenAI. The referred date should mark the public access to the technology, broadly or in a restricted manner.

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