Trump in jail by election day?

At the beginning of September 2023, former US President Donald Trump awaited the trial in four criminal cases: for bribery in the state of New York, for election interference in the state of Georgia, for mishandling classified documents at the federal level and for taking part in the January 6th, 2021, insurrection, also at federal level.

If by November 5th, 2024 (the date of the next Presidential elections in the United States), Donald Trump gets sentenced to prison as the result of any legal procedure, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The sentence can result either from any of the 4 ongoing state and federal lawsuits against the former President or from any other case. Jail enforcement is not a required condition for this market to resolve as “Yes”. The market will resolve to "Yes" at the moment the legal decision becomes public, determining any amount of jail time for Trump.

Alternatively, this market will also resolve to “Yes” if before November 5th, 2024, Donald Trump gets arrested and spends at least one night in jail, regardless of whether the acts that are responsible for the arrest are connected or not to the ongoing criminal lawsuits.