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ICC to summon any suspects in its investigation over Ukraine’s situation in 2024? Yes: real money 96%, play money 96% No: real money 4%, play money 4% Volume: real money 837.3900847, play money 42300.01 Bettors: real money 4, play money 7 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Multilateral Organizations Related markets Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026? (ID: 231679) Volume: real 34.63217066, play 3823.39533593 Bettors: real 6, play 13 Leading (real money): Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026? 12% Leading (play money): Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026? 11% Ukraine to maintain control over ______ through the end of 2026? (ID: 231745) Volume: real 158.15451279, play 11060.5997027 Bettors: real 16, play 17 Leading (real money): Zakarpattia 95% Leading (play money): Zakarpattia 91% Which countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026? (ID: 231763) Volume: real 89.83718214, play 620.24774922 Bettors: real 21, play 13 Leading (real money): No NATO member 67% Leading (play money): No NATO member 83% Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine through the end of 2026? (ID: 231616) Volume: real 449.31351417, play 57390.31914426 Bettors: real 15, play 43 Leading (real money): Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine through the end of 2026? 90% Leading (play money): Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine through the end of 2026? 83% Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? (ID: 166867) Volume: real 476.52461407, play 17331.88098013 Bettors: real 9, play 34 Leading (real money): Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? 7% Leading (play money): Brazil to join the OECD by the end of 2026? 2%

ICC to summon any suspects in its investigation over Ukraine’s situation in 2024?

Market Rules

On March 2nd, 2022, the International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation over the alleged consecution of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Ukrainian territory since 2013. Although the development of ICC trials tends to last years, the prosecutor decided to open an investigation shortly after 40 State Parties of the court reported flagrant violations of international criminal law since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022.

In an ICC investigation, after gathering evidence and identifying suspects, the ICC's prosecutor may request the court's judges to either summon suspects to appear voluntarily, or to issue arrest warrants.

If by December 31, 2024, the ICC's investigation of the situation in Ukraine (case ICC-01/22) does identify suspects and the court's judges do summon them before the court (be it voluntarily or by issuing arresting warrants) this market will resolve to “Yes”.

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  • pedro_brito:  In 2024, ICC Pre-Trial Chamber II issued arrest warrants for Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash, Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov, Sergei Shoigu, and Valery Gerasimov for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including directing attacks on civilian infrastructure and causing harm to civilians. These developments meet the market's criteria of issuing new warrants during the year​ ( Link )

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