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US economic recession in 2024? No: real money 93%, play money 84% Yes: real money 7%, play money 16% Volume: real money 671.21272985, play money 23200.06 Bettors: real money 17, play money 19 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, GDP Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 1755.66850182, play 31302.33685035 Bettors: real 24, play 88 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 41% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 43% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1626.37917605, play 150094.17782247 Bettors: real 89, play 106 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1116.84292351, play 49473.81513658 Bettors: real 18, play 53 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 9% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 16% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2715.2344096, play 116947.89325969 Bettors: real 39, play 214 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3246.73501219, play 138639.04709376 Bettors: real 30, play 211 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 2% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 46%

US economic recession in 2024?

Market Rules

Only if a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares the United States to have entered recession at any point in 2024 will this market resolve to "Yes".

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

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