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CFTC ban on political event contracts into effect by EOY? No: real money 94%, play money 93% Yes: real money 6%, play money 7% Volume: real money 378.00428343, play money 36200 Bettors: real money 12, play money 12 Categories: Finance, Prediction Markets Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2045.00877596, play 37828.53405976 Bettors: real 23, play 85 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 39% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.88778546, play 117480.45119066 Bettors: real 39, play 212 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 963.95276357, play 127896.20979507 Bettors: real 75, play 91 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1268.19508194, play 40999.49399825 Bettors: real 17, play 52 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 25% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 43% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.61949177, play 138193.40726428 Bettors: real 30, play 210 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 10% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 55%

CFTC ban on political event contracts into effect by EOY?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will formalize within its final rules list the substantial or absolute restriction to political event contracts by December 31, 2024, at 23:59 (UTC-3). Bets or contracts predicting the outcomes of political events shall be the object of such rule, according to the CFTC’s definition.

CFTC’s final rules list, other official announcements from the same agency or media reports confirmed by the agency’s officials will be the reference to resolve this market.

In May 2024, CFTC proposed to ban the listing and clearing of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political events in the US, such as the presidential election. The proposal must still go through a public debate and then a process of approval before eventually turning into a final rule.

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