SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft with a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the manned mission is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2028 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.