SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? Yes: real money 6%, play money 21% No: real money 94%, play money 79% Volume: real money 138.24813846, play money 14240.1204 Bettors: real money 6, play money 26 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 755.94482186, play 45587.4972037 Bettors: real 53, play 45 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 839.46430053, play 73092.52280048 Bettors: real 19, play 88 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 2% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 7% SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? (ID: 201462) Volume: real 1134.70489845, play 187161.12910342 Bettors: real 28, play 144 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 18%

SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft with a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the manned mission is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2028 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

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