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SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028? Yes: real money 6%, play money 19% No: real money 94%, play money 81% Volume: real money 50.27453846, play money 5155.92964445 Bettors: real money 6, play money 27 Categories: Science, Space Exploration, Mars Related markets Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 1085.62043998, play 59815.01606926 Bettors: real 65, play 56 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? (ID: 201462) Volume: real 1193.64966827, play 186009.51544517 Bettors: real 28, play 146 Leading (real money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 8% Leading (play money): SpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026? 18% SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? (ID: 188272) Volume: real 787.02162046, play 64712.79252399 Bettors: real 21, play 90 Leading (real money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 23% Leading (play money): SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026? 5%

SpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether SpaceX will launch at least one Starship spacecraft with a human crew to Mars by December 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the referred date, the manned mission is effectively launched towards Mars and successfully leaves the orbit of the Earth, regardless of whether or not it successfully reaches the orbit of Mars and lands on the planet's surface.

This market may resolve to "No" before the end of 2028 if SpaceX officially announces that it will NOT launch such a mission to Mars by the referred date.

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