Will the debt brake be altered in the German constitution in 2025?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether the constitutional debt brake ("Schuldenbremse") will be modified in the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz) before the start of the 2025 year-end parliamentary recess. For this market to resolve as "Yes," an official constitutional amendment must be passed that changes the current debt brake provisions outlined in Article 109 and/or Article 115 of the Basic Law. Temporary suspensions, exceptions under emergency clauses, or political discussions about reform will not be sufficient unless they lead to an actual constitutional change.
Verification will rely on official announcements from the German government, the Bundestag, the Bundesrat, and confirmation from reputable media sources. The market will remain open until a constitutional amendment is fully approved through the required legislative process, including passage by a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and Bundesrat. If no such amendment is enacted before the parliamentary recess begins, the market will resolve as "No."
If a proposed amendment is passed by only one chamber or is approved but not formally enacted by the end of 2025, the market will not resolve as "Yes." In cases of legal uncertainty or conflicting reports, priority will be given to official government publications and constitutional records confirming the status of the debt brake in the Basic Law.