Will the US tariffs on Chinese imports be less than 145% by June 1?
Market Rules
This market predicts whether, between May 1st and May 31, 2025, at 23:59 (UTC-3), the United States will reduce the general tariff rate applied to imports from the People’s Republic of China to less than 145%. This 145% rate reflects the cumulative impact of multiple executive orders and amendments, including adjustments to the de minimis and postal item tariff schedules. At the moment this market was opened, the US had announced tariffs of 125% on Chinese imports, on top of a fentanyl-related tariff of 20% previously imposed on China
To resolve as “Yes,” a binding and publicly issued directive from the U.S. government must establish a general tariff burden below 145% for Chinese imports. This may take the form of a new executive order, an amended HTSUS entry, or a regulatory suspension issued by the White House, USTR, or Department of Commerce. Minor exemptions, duty deferrals, or statements of intent will not qualify unless they clearly lower the applicable rate across broad categories of Chinese goods.
If no such general tariff reduction is in effect by the deadline, the market will resolve as “No.” Verification will rely on official tariff schedules, executive orders, and formal communications, with confirmation from reputable press coverage used as auxiliary support.